So, Hurricane Ian missed Tampa, and selfishly, I’m happy with that. I have ties to Tampa, and keep an eye on things. The worst case scenario for Tampa would be the right-side of a major hurricane’s eye-wall aligns with the mouth of bay, and it looked from early forecasts like Hurricane Ian was going to take that path. Instead, the storm went south and Tampa got the left side of the eye-wall, which pushed water out to sea.
However, Fort Myers got nailed, and a lot of houses went underwater. I wonder if storm surge was the best term to warn of what happened.
See, to me at least, storm surge makes it sound like the land will still be under my feet. You know, the storm is coming on, and she’s coming on strong, but I’m still standing in the great state of Florida.
Except, the ocean is surging, not the storm. If the surge comes in, my house is in the ocean. What was once my front yard is ocean bottom until the water goes down, and in a hurricane, it’s a very angry ocean.
This Tweet is a great example of what I’m talking about.
All flooding is like that, I guess. If the river rises, your house is in the river, at least for a while. You’ve lost control. And this is why people die crossing floaded roadways. Psychologically, they think there’s a road there. But they’re driving into a river. The road is river bottom, at least for a while.
So, is storm surge the best term we can use? Because the message needs to be, “You will be in the ocean. You will no longer be in Fort Meyers Beach, or Sarasota, or wherever it is you think you live. You will be in the Gulf of Mexico, surrounded by water, as if somebody picked up your house and dropped it in the water, without asking your permission.”
Land means safety to people. Some people are hesitant even to put a single foot in the water. It might be the sunniest, calmest day ever, and the Gulf of Mexico is usually calm, and they’re like, “Is it safe?” And they wade out up to their hips, and they’re like, “Whoa! I did it. But this is as far as I’m going. Not a step further.” Those same people will stay in their houses during storm surge. They think they’ll still be on land, and their houses will protect them. It’s nuts. We need to do a better job of messaging what storm surge means. “You will be in the ocean, folks.”
A house might withstand the ocean for a few hours, but it might not.
Well, Florida was once entirely underwater, and it will be again, at some point. I mean, the highest point in the state is what, 400 feet above sea level? Florida is just a big sandbar. So, there’s this tug-of-war with the ocean there, and during a hurricane, the ocean wins. Just get out.
Sea-level rise is a good number, and meaningful to some, but it will help other people to understand the ocean will move inland. They can look at a map and see, “Holy cow. Our house will be a quarter mile out to sea when the storm hits.” Phrases like “in the ocean” and “far from land” need to be emphasized. Some people will stay anyway. There’s nothing anybody can do about the daredevils. But sensible people will get out.
So, what works? “During the storm, the Gulf of Mexico will move inland an average of half a mile. Those who remain in the affected areas will be temporarily out at sea, with nobody to help them.” It’s kind of wordy. I’m not sure I like it. But at least it makes it clear what’s going to happen.